Post by baldheadeddork on Nov 10, 2009 17:35:04 GMT -5
Public Policy Polling:
There have been some blog posts in the wake of this survey predicting that Snowe will follow Arlen Specter and jump across the aisle. I can't see that happening before the 2010 elections, but if the tea baggers keep going after moderate Republicans I don't see how she doesn't switch long before she has to run in 2012.
One other thing about Republicans in Senate races: This mostly flew under the radar last week but one aftermath of the NY-23 race was National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman John Cornyn announcing that the group will not spend money or make endorsements in contested primaries.
This could have a huge effect on how 2010 shapes up. Have a look at the Connecticut race to challenge Chris Dodd. The candidate the national GOP wants is former congressman Rob Simmons, who is beating Dodd by double-digits if the election were today. Simmons could use the help of the NRSC. He's going up against a multi-millionaire former ambassador, the wife of WWE founder Vince McMahaon (who also has millions to drop on the race) and libertarian Peter Schiff - another multi-millionaire who was an adviser to Ron Paul's presidential campaign last year. Simmons chances of winning this primary drop substantially without NRSC support, and the Republican's chances of beating Dodd fall even more dramatically if Simmons is not their nominee.
Now repeat this in Florida, Colorado, Illinois - state after state where the preferred candidate is vulnerable to a challenge from the right.
It looks like Olympia Snowe could have a pretty hard time getting nominated for another term in the Senate as a Republican.
There are now more folks in her party who disapprove than approve of Snowe's job performance. 46% of GOP voters think she's doing a bad job to 40% who give her good marks.
Snowe is still pretty popular with the liberal/moderate wing of her party, earning a 64% approval rating from them. But even in Maine 68% of Republicans are conservatives and they give her just a 29% approval rating with a 56% majority disapproving of her.
Asked how they would vote in a primary contest between Snowe and a more conservative challenger, just 31% of likely Republican voters say they would pick Snowe while 59% say they would go for the conservative alternative.
Obviously 2012 is a long ways away. Snowe could get herself back into the good graces of the Republican electorate, or a conservative challenge could fail to materialize. But given the recent successes of the Club for Growth, at least within the sphere of GOP voters, Snowe seems a pretty likely target.
There are now more folks in her party who disapprove than approve of Snowe's job performance. 46% of GOP voters think she's doing a bad job to 40% who give her good marks.
Snowe is still pretty popular with the liberal/moderate wing of her party, earning a 64% approval rating from them. But even in Maine 68% of Republicans are conservatives and they give her just a 29% approval rating with a 56% majority disapproving of her.
Asked how they would vote in a primary contest between Snowe and a more conservative challenger, just 31% of likely Republican voters say they would pick Snowe while 59% say they would go for the conservative alternative.
Obviously 2012 is a long ways away. Snowe could get herself back into the good graces of the Republican electorate, or a conservative challenge could fail to materialize. But given the recent successes of the Club for Growth, at least within the sphere of GOP voters, Snowe seems a pretty likely target.
There have been some blog posts in the wake of this survey predicting that Snowe will follow Arlen Specter and jump across the aisle. I can't see that happening before the 2010 elections, but if the tea baggers keep going after moderate Republicans I don't see how she doesn't switch long before she has to run in 2012.
One other thing about Republicans in Senate races: This mostly flew under the radar last week but one aftermath of the NY-23 race was National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman John Cornyn announcing that the group will not spend money or make endorsements in contested primaries.
This could have a huge effect on how 2010 shapes up. Have a look at the Connecticut race to challenge Chris Dodd. The candidate the national GOP wants is former congressman Rob Simmons, who is beating Dodd by double-digits if the election were today. Simmons could use the help of the NRSC. He's going up against a multi-millionaire former ambassador, the wife of WWE founder Vince McMahaon (who also has millions to drop on the race) and libertarian Peter Schiff - another multi-millionaire who was an adviser to Ron Paul's presidential campaign last year. Simmons chances of winning this primary drop substantially without NRSC support, and the Republican's chances of beating Dodd fall even more dramatically if Simmons is not their nominee.
Now repeat this in Florida, Colorado, Illinois - state after state where the preferred candidate is vulnerable to a challenge from the right.