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Post by will on Nov 16, 2009 11:21:15 GMT -5
According to the AP, consumer spending is up in October. Holiday season? Not yet. Stocks soar. Bets on unemployment falling in January seem like they would be pretty good, although I still think it's going to take until the second quarter.
Sure enough, the stimulus seems to be working its way through the system.
Beats me how to do a poll, but it would be interesting to see when we all think the unemployment rate will start to fall again. This is bad news if you want to see the Republicans do well in 2010, but good news if you want to see the Democrats strengthened.
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Post by flylooper on Nov 16, 2009 11:25:16 GMT -5
According to the AP, consumer spending is up in October. Holiday season? Not yet. Stocks soar. Bets on unemployment falling in January seem like they would be pretty good, although I still think it's going to take until the second quarter. Sure enough, the stimulus seems to be working its way through the system. Beats me how to do a poll, but it would be interesting to see when we all think the unemployment rate will start to fall again. This is bad news if you want to see the Republicans do well in 2010, but good news if you want to see the Democrats strengthened. The GOP just continually whines about the deficit. It's all they got. And by the looks of it, all they will have in 2010. The problem is that whining about the deficit is like whining about water conservation when your house is on fire.
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Post by jimschmidt on Nov 16, 2009 12:00:18 GMT -5
I think it's starting to look like Republicans will do OK in the midterms because the economy won't rebound soon enough. When it does soon after, they'll take credit, shaping the next presidential election to be a real fight.
Anyway, that's the way it looks to me now.
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Post by kitkat on Nov 16, 2009 12:09:56 GMT -5
"Excluding automobiles, sales increased 0.2 percent after a 0.4 percent gain in September. They were forecast to increase 0.4 percent, according to the survey median. Forecasts ranged from gains of 0.4 percent to 1.8 percent. "--Bloomberg
Auotsales & autoparts were where the gain was (7 percent & change)are the same category and are not separated in this data (all this data is from the census dept monthly retail sales report--the prelim version. The prelim version for sept was -1.4 and was revised to -2.3. the auto/parts category was -14 and change so they got about half of last month's loss back. ). Gasoline sales dropped 15% from Sept. So we're replacing old cars (employed), fixing old cars (the rest), but still not driving much... other retail remains flat or losing ground. Smacks of lemonade making to me. But hey..whatever gives the market players a new wave to ride... trickle down, baby! ;D
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Post by jeromeoneil on Nov 16, 2009 12:28:39 GMT -5
I think it's starting to look like Republicans will do OK in the midterms because the economy won't rebound soon enough. When it does soon after, they'll take credit, shaping the next presidential election to be a real fight. Anyway, that's the way it looks to me now. I think the bigger influence will be the people that supported him in the election are going to stay home. They wanted change, and in the 1st important battle, they got more corporate welfare and concession to the point of irrelevancy. Its the left that is going to sink Obama's next term, not the right.
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Post by jimschmidt on Nov 16, 2009 12:33:10 GMT -5
I think it's starting to look like Republicans will do OK in the midterms because the economy won't rebound soon enough. When it does soon after, they'll take credit, shaping the next presidential election to be a real fight. Anyway, that's the way it looks to me now. I think the bigger influence will be the people that supported him in the election are going to stay home. They wanted change, and in the 1st important battle, they got more corporate welfare and concession to the point of irrelevancy. Its the left that is going to sink Obama's next term, not the right. This is the point I made in my contest losing editorial for the Post's pundit contest. However I think it applies to the midterm elections. I don't see any way that Obama is denied a second term. He's too good and his opponent will be too lame, particulary if R's do well or even decently in the mid-term.
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Post by kitkat on Nov 16, 2009 12:48:25 GMT -5
The black vote was extremely motivated in 2008 and that was *only* because a major prez candidate was black. Without that minority turnout--which was completely unprecedented, Obama would have lost. Simple as that. The question is: what will motivate a repeat (or even a near repeat) of that unprecedented 2008 minority turnout that was key to virtually all dem victories nationwide in 2010? Various establishment white guys dukeing it out doesn't seem to be the right recipe for any repeat performance of *that*. Add to this the dem satisfaction losses ongoing in the "independent voter' segment and 2010 looks like fingertips-on-a-cliff edge for the dems. The only *motivated* voters are the white block--the worse, the most reactionary part of that block (and the one with the most corp media exposure--great for recruiting you must admit...).
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trash
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Post by trash on Nov 16, 2009 13:06:32 GMT -5
The black vote was extremely motivated in 2008 and that was *only* because a major prez candidate was black. Without that minority turnout--which was completely unprecedented, Obama would have lost. Simple as that. The question is: what will motivate a repeat (or even a near repeat) of that unprecedented 2008 minority turnout that was key to virtually all dem victories nationwide in 2010? Various establishment white guys dukeing it out doesn't seem to be the right recipe for any repeat performance of *that*. Add to this the dem satisfaction losses ongoing in the "independent voter' segment and 2010 looks like fingertips-on-a-cliff edge for the dems. The only *motivated* voters are the white block--the worse, the most reactionary part of that block (and the one with the most corp media exposure--great for recruiting you must admit...). Come on...so your saying Hillary would have lost too or any Democrat? The Republicans were gonna lose this one regardless.
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Post by kitkat on Nov 16, 2009 13:31:19 GMT -5
Look at the stats. Obama *lost* the white vote by a wide margin (McCain won whites by 12 points, while Obama won blacks by 91 points, Hispanics by 36 points, and Asians by 27 points--CNN). Sure a white dem candidate would have brought out the (past) typical %age of minority voters (and voting much more split ticket than in 2008), but nothing like the numbers and homogeneity Obama was able to bring to the polls. And yes, the dems *may* have won regardless...but it would have been much more of a squeaker than it was. I wouldn't have been surprised to have seen HC go down, in retrospect, but we'll never know of course... heck, if HC was the nom, Palin could well still be the obscure gov of alaska...never tapped in the first place.
Anyway, none of the factors of 2008 is operative for 2010. It is reversed infact--midterms have less minority and more white turnout--less young more old. And the economy this time will be owned by the dems not the repubs. IOW more conservative by far. A miraculous economic turnaround--ON MAIN STREET--could save the dems in 2010 but what are the odds...really?
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Post by jimschmidt on Nov 16, 2009 13:36:42 GMT -5
We've all heard your "that nigger jumped his place in line" argument. Give it a rest.
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Post by rocky4948 on Nov 16, 2009 13:40:47 GMT -5
I think the bigger influence will be the people that supported him in the election are going to stay home. They wanted change, and in the 1st important battle, they got more corporate welfare and concession to the point of irrelevancy. Its the left that is going to sink Obama's next term, not the right. This is the point I made in my contest losing editorial for the Post's pundit contest. However I think it applies to the midterm elections. I don't see any way that Obama is denied a second term. He's too good and his opponent will be too lame, particulary if R's do well or even decently in the mid-term. Shit folks, he had many many things to fix, and he's done a great job so far. It's a no brainer that he will be re-elected.
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trash
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Post by trash on Nov 16, 2009 13:47:21 GMT -5
This is the point I made in my contest losing editorial for the Post's pundit contest. However I think it applies to the midterm elections. I don't see any way that Obama is denied a second term. He's too good and his opponent will be too lame, particulary if R's do well or even decently in the mid-term. Shit folks, he had many many things to fix, and he's done a great job so far. It's a no brainer that he will be re-elected. Now I know you voted for him, but are you being sarcastic Arn?
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Post by rocky4948 on Nov 16, 2009 13:54:06 GMT -5
Shit folks, he had many many things to fix, and he's done a great job so far. It's a no brainer that he will be re-elected. Now I know you voted for him, but are you being sarcastic Arn? No, not at all. He's got a hell of a road in-front of him, but he will do OK. And the damage he's fixed with the rest of the world just keeps going and going, and getting fixed very nicely
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Post by kitkat on Nov 16, 2009 13:56:03 GMT -5
We've all heard your "that nigger jumped his place in line" argument. Give it a rest. FU, Jim. My post was about facts. Project your BS racist bile on someone else (I suggest the image in your mirror.)
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Post by rocky4948 on Nov 16, 2009 14:57:49 GMT -5
We've all heard your "that nigger jumped his place in line" argument. Give it a rest. FU, Jim. My post was about facts. Project your BS racist bile on someone else (I suggest the image in your mirror.) ;D
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