Prematurely reported demise

[will]

Here's yet more commie propaganda from Bloomberg. Namely that the influence of America in the world hasn't been irreparably damaged by Barack Obama. The editorial didn't go as far as it should by saying that American standing was grievously harmed by the idiot from Texass, but he's only a partial commie, not a full-on islamo-fascist-socialist-freedom-hater.

www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-16/american-decline-a-mirage-in-a-world-that-s-rising.html

Anyway, the essay is especially interesting in how it points out the way economies grow rapidly, then slow as they become middle class, the demographic challenges in a number of parts of the world, and the relative nature of national economies and what it means to be larger or smaller. It's not very Republican in its outlook, so I'm pretty sure Mitt Romney won't be inviting Ezra Klein to speak at any of his campaign events. It's actually intelligent, which disqualifies it from being "conservative."

[kitkat]

This guy is insane. "A world in which global growth slows so much that countries with three or four times our population never surpass the U.S.’s economic output is a world in which much is going wrong. "

Three or four times our population living even ANYWHERE RECOGNIZABLY CLOSE to our lifestyle posits humanity 'going wrong' at an extinction pace.

These infinite growth types should be wearing toilet bowls for hats.

Our decline isn't arguable, it's inevitable and obvious: authoritarian capitalism is and has been eating liberal capitalism for _lunch_. There is no sign that will change, as it is, also not arguably, the more *efficient* form of capitalism. Liberal capitalism is dying the same death for the same reasons that communism died: insufficient efficiency vis a vis the competing system.

Lassiez-faire capitalism begat revolution begat communism begat liberal capitalism begat culture of consumption begat authoritarian capitalism begets collapse of civilization. It's kinda biblical, really.

[will]

Collapse of civilization will lead to something else, not necessarily better. Being a bourgeoisie candy ass, myself, and having a bourgeoisie candy ass for a son, I hope we manage to hold off the collapse for a while.

But, there's no reason for infinite growth. If the population starts to shrink because people decide that forty-'leven kids is about forty-'twelve too many, then we don't need growth to maintain a decent standard of living. We could see economic growth in negative territory and have rising standards of living. Not a bad outcome, really. And, just because growth is happening elsewhere doesn't mean bad things in the end, in my opinion. If we can somehow figure out how to do things efficiently, reduce or reverse population growth, and find newer, less destructive ways to do things, maybe we won't just be cosmic comedy.

I'm a pathological optimist, in case you hadn't noticed.

[kitkat]

Will, that would be cool, negative growth and a rising standard of living-- but tell me what economic system offers *that*? Not capitalism that's for sure. Here, neg growth has only two names: depression and recession. And save unemployment, 'rising' anything doesn't accompany either.

[will]

If the population is shrinking, then GDP per capita will rise even if GDP doesn't change. If population is shrinking enough, then GDP per capita can rise even if GDP is falling. This cannot happen if you have a growing population. With a rapidly expanding population, you could have less GDP per capita even with decent growth in the overall economy. That's one of the reasons it's essential to get population growth under control in developing parts of the world.

It may not happen and we will all drown in our own excrement, like yeast. Who knows. I think it is possible to have a tolerable outcome instead of apololypse.

[baldrick]

I've no idea if it could actually work in practice, but check out the book "For Us, The Living" by Robert Heinlein. It presents an alternative economic model to the "perpetual expansion" model we've followed for centuries.

Worth a look, but the "have the mosts" are far from likely to let it come into use.