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Post by arozanski on Nov 12, 2009 14:28:47 GMT -5
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Post by ty454 on Nov 12, 2009 15:04:11 GMT -5
Can someone from the collective pool of smarts explain how this is all supposed to happen? Not wishy-washy shit like the "alternative energy revolution" but actual details. How is america going to produce solar cells when it's way cheaper to do it elsewhere? I can't get around that. Anything we produce, the chinese can produce more cheaply, no matter what it seems. And it's not like they're feudal or something, they have engineers who are smart and can invent things too. So not only do they have the market cornered on production, they can do R&D too. Short of laws forcing only US-manufactured equipment to be sold here, I don't see how we can win. And we all know that things will cost way more with US-labor so we'll all buy less and unemployment will go up. Sorry, we're getting poorer and I've yet to read any convincing detailed argument from anybody on how we can solve that. Like ideas and shit that have numbers and math to prove how it'll be done. No government "American Revolution" bullshit propaganda. I did find this today - it's energy related, surprise surprise, but it does lay out some high level ideas regarding capital flight to abstract financial products due to their low energy costs. I don't know if it's causation or causality, and I've only thought about it for less than an hour, but it's an article that cemented a number of abstract things flying around in my head. thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2009/11/gesture-from-invisible-hand.html
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Post by john on Nov 12, 2009 15:21:49 GMT -5
I think getting over our margin obsession in business would help get over these issues. If we continue to demand high margin, cheap crap, we will continue to stifle or remove our manufacturing base.
We can't compete on a level playing field with a country whose workforce lives in abject poverty, unless we become that. Unfortunately, that's the route we are taking.
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Post by jimschmidt on Nov 12, 2009 16:15:43 GMT -5
Our problem isn't the lack of factories, it's the abdication of technological leadership. All of our success came from staying out front.
If you create the best stuff someone else can make it. If you neither create or make the best stuff, you're fucked.
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Post by ty454 on Nov 12, 2009 16:54:40 GMT -5
Our problem isn't the lack of factories, it's the abdication of technological leadership. All of our success came from staying out front. If you create the best stuff someone else can make it. If you neither create or make the best stuff, you're fucked. Please expand on this idea. So we don't make it, but it's ok as long as we create it? Can you give some concrete, tangible ideas/examples and scaling to pull this off? How does America transition from manufacturing to creating-only, and how many products do we create to pick up the existing unemployment slack and also those jobs that are lost with the decline of manufacturing? What do we all create? The vast majority of people I see really aren't fit to create, and by create I'm sort of guessing you mean technological innovation.
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Post by john on Nov 12, 2009 17:27:41 GMT -5
Our problem isn't the lack of factories, it's the abdication of technological leadership. All of our success came from staying out front. If you create the best stuff someone else can make it. If you neither create or make the best stuff, you're fucked. We can't have leadership without the manufacturing base to supply it with funding and go to market capabilities. One hand shakes the other.
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Post by jeromeoneil on Nov 12, 2009 17:52:18 GMT -5
It's fundamentally an output of the old "Buy vs build" problem. It's become much, much cheaper to buy goods built somewhere else. That's why we don't build them, and we're going tits up buying them.
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Post by flylooper on Nov 12, 2009 18:25:54 GMT -5
I think getting over our margin obsession in business would help get over these issues. If we continue to demand high margin, cheap crap, we will continue to stifle or remove our manufacturing base. We can't compete on a level playing field with a country whose workforce lives in abject poverty, unless we become that. Unfortunately, that's the route we are taking. What are Chinese CEOs paid, I wonder.
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Post by grumpytoo on Nov 12, 2009 23:46:28 GMT -5
I once thought when I was working for a large international company which was in the middle of outsourcing; now what is the reason we couldn't outsource management? Upper management already moved out so they could have a "global vision". We seldom see any other management. Indian managers seem to run their companies pretty well. Now tell me why management couldn't be outsourced? We could still get memos and quality programs and all that. Listen to a vision speeches.
--chris
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Post by timd99 on Nov 13, 2009 1:09:15 GMT -5
Did you not get the TPS report?
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Post by arozanski on Nov 13, 2009 7:51:27 GMT -5
Can someone from the collective pool of smarts explain how this is all supposed to happen? Not wishy-washy shit like the "alternative energy revolution" but actual details. How is america going to produce solar cells when it's way cheaper to do it elsewhere? I can't get around that. Anything we produce, the chinese can produce more cheaply, no matter what it seems. And it's not like they're feudal or something, they have engineers who are smart and can invent things too. So not only do they have the market cornered on production, they can do R&D too. Short of laws forcing only US-manufactured equipment to be sold here, I don't see how we can win. And we all know that things will cost way more with US-labor so we'll all buy less and unemployment will go up. Sorry, we're getting poorer and I've yet to read any convincing detailed argument from anybody on how we can solve that. Like ideas and shit that have numbers and math to prove how it'll be done. No government "American Revolution" bullshit propaganda. I did find this today - it's energy related, surprise surprise, but it does lay out some high level ideas regarding capital flight to abstract financial products due to their low energy costs. I don't know if it's causation or causality, and I've only thought about it for less than an hour, but it's an article that cemented a number of abstract things flying around in my head. thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2009/11/gesture-from-invisible-hand.htmlThis is what I'm saying. Its over, traditional-manufacturingwise. But we can invest in education, increase patents rights (and infringement penalties) and become the world's R&D center. Develop new tech, or significant improvements on old tech, and license it. You mention solar panels. The US needs to concentrate on improving efficiency to at least 50-75%, increase durability and simplify manufacturing. This can be done through university research and the use of the government's SBIR program. Then, create the infrastructure for installing these solar panels (incentives for small, local installing companies), mandate that every government building get solar roofs, and offer a tax break (with a sun down) to utility providers for using solar energy in lieu of coal/gas/oil.
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Post by kitkat on Nov 13, 2009 12:37:53 GMT -5
Our problem isn't the lack of factories, it's the abdication of technological leadership. All of our success came from staying out front. If you create the best stuff someone else can make it. If you neither create or make the best stuff, you're fucked. Please expand on this idea. So we don't make it, but it's ok as long as we create it? Can you give some concrete, tangible ideas/examples and scaling to pull this off? How does America transition from manufacturing to creating-only, and how many products do we create to pick up the existing unemployment slack and also those jobs that are lost with the decline of manufacturing? What do we all create? The vast majority of people I see really aren't fit to create, and by create I'm sort of guessing you mean technological innovation. You are right, IMO. But the theory goes like this: Licensing, patents, etc. Why do you think there has been so much attention paid to piracy/intellectual property (patents etc) internationally? Piracy is the only thing the US actually pressures the chinese seriously on any more. We (we used loosely) want the proper compensation for our intellectual development, the chinese would rather just steal the patent ideas etc. --although i think there has been progress on this front from the official chinese side. Problem is, (as you said) Joe/Jane sixpack isn't gonna benefit much from inventor royalties. We still have the problem of an underutilized labor force--people who could be highly skilled machinists, for example, instead stuck serving burgers and stocking shelves in our "service" economy. So, any "inventor economy" is still just going to add to the ongoing trend of upward redistribution of wealth. It is too late to do the "high tariffs" program. We'd lose the trade war (*everyone* vs. us) that would start I'm afraid. Not to mention the fact that Walmarters, etc would simply riot; no political feasibility in raising prices across the board on the lower classes that are spoiled (addicted really) by(to) cheap chinese products...ya just can't un-ring a bell. I always catch hell for "bitching with no ideas for a solution". I just haven't run across any viable solutions/ideas--yet. I am still looking though.
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Post by grumpytoo on Nov 13, 2009 12:52:02 GMT -5
I don't know if there is a "solution" if that solution means keeping the U.S., or even the present 1st world, on top and expanding. I kind of think this has run its' course and we are going to be in a leveling of economics for a while. I think maybe the 90s, 00s, were the peak for the U.S.
I certainly hope I am wrong, I find it really discouraging to have my kids and grandkids grow up with less opportunity but there it is. I don't really think it is any groups policies, though the leveling could be moderated by good policy, but rather more the currents of history.
The hopeful news is that, unlike most people on these forums, I am quite often wrong, so there is hope.
--chris
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Post by arozanski on Nov 13, 2009 12:54:37 GMT -5
I don't know if there is a "solution" if that solution means keeping the U.S., or even the present 1st world, on top and expanding. I kind of think this has run its' course and we are going to be in a leveling of economics for a while. I think maybe the 90s, 00s, were the peak for the U.S. I certainly hope I am wrong, I find it really discouraging to have my kids and grandkids grow up with less opportunity but there it is. I don't really think it is any groups policies, though the leveling could be moderated by good policy, but rather more the currents of history. The hopeful news is that, unlike most people on these forums, I am quite often wrong, so there is hope. --chris Expansion cannot be infinite, it isn't possible. Ergo, a plateau must be planned for, and contraction must be included in the plan for safety's sake.
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Post by flylooper on Nov 13, 2009 13:20:48 GMT -5
We can't educate ourselves out of an employment / manufacturing problem. Life is a bell shaped curve. There are those with no college potential. In fact, the majority of the work force is likely to be not college material.
So...where are the trade schools? Who is learning how to run a lathe, or a printing press; to wire a house; to make a pair of shoes? We have inured ourselves to cheap prices for products made with virtually slave wages coming in from overseas. Much of our food; all of our consumer electronics, our clothes...EVERYTHING which is used every day comes from offshore. But in doing so, we have rewarded companies for moving and sourcing offshore.
Middle class wealth, which drove this economy, has disappeared. The laboring class, the people who wore the blue shirts, used to be the backbone of the middle class. No more.
I think the fed should build at least one trade school in every school district in the nation. Teach kids how to work with their hands. Then...put them to work.
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