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Post by flylooper on Oct 29, 2009 8:35:48 GMT -5
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Post by baldheadeddork on Oct 29, 2009 8:43:05 GMT -5
That's a very nice number. The estimate released a couple of days ago was +3.2%, so to beat that by 10% is really good.
GDP in the third and fourth quarter are the big numbers I'm looking at for where we'll go in 2010. If we have a good fourth quarter, too, I think the chances of a double dip recession are going to be very low. I still don't think we'll have a strong recovery, but if Q4 GDP comes in at 3% or better I think we'll start to see unemployment bottom out in the first quarter and we'll have a steady recovery throughout the year.
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Post by shadows090 on Oct 29, 2009 9:10:41 GMT -5
Good news. So since employment gains typically follows two quarters after, and we have the holiday season this quarter, we should be seeing a steady increase in employment the news couple quarters. Perhaps a slight decrease Q1, but nothing significant. It'll be interesting how this turns out. I still lack confidence in the accuracy of our current unemployment numbers, but positive news is positive news. Hopefully we are on our way out, as it seems. We will still have a long road ahead of us.
So France and Germany reported a rising GDP in Q2, the US reports it in Q3 (now)....what causes the disconnect for the UK?
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Post by baldheadeddork on Oct 29, 2009 9:53:35 GMT -5
So France and Germany reported a rising GDP in Q2, the US reports it in Q3 (now)....what causes the disconnect for the UK? I haven't followed the European economies closely enough to give a definitive answer, but Great Britain was a lot deeper into a housing bubble than either France or Germany. On a proportional scale their banks were at least as fucked up as ours. |
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Post by will on Oct 29, 2009 10:57:32 GMT -5
Good news. So since employment gains typically follows two quarters after, and we have the holiday season this quarter, we should be seeing a steady increase in employment the news couple quarters. Perhaps a slight decrease Q1, but nothing significant. It'll be interesting how this turns out. I still lack confidence in the accuracy of our current unemployment numbers, but positive news is positive news. Hopefully we are on our way out, as it seems. We will still have a long road ahead of us. So France and Germany reported a rising GDP in Q2, the US reports it in Q3 (now)....what causes the disconnect for the UK? Britain's economy is far closer to ours in structure and exposure than Germany or France. All of Europe was exposed at least somewhat to the banking meltdown, but the socialist nature of France and Germany kept their economies from stalling out completely. You could think of their economies as a managed mutual fund. A properly run managed mutual fund will typically underperform the market in a bull market, but won't fall nearly as much in a bear market. It will rebound sooner and fall later. It's not a perfect analogy, but it's a way to think about how the European economy differs from ours. |
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Post by shadows090 on Oct 29, 2009 11:10:07 GMT -5
So how do you explain why the UK is performing much worse than the US?
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Post by will on Oct 29, 2009 12:07:43 GMT -5
So how do you explain why the UK is performing much worse than the US? They just suck. Honestly, I don't know, but my guess is they had an even worse housing bubble and were more intimately tied to the finance industry. They also may be reverting to post-war norms. Britain wasn't a great place to be for 30 or more years. There's a reason the Sex Pistols came from England. |
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Post by jimschmidt on Oct 29, 2009 14:39:19 GMT -5
Just saw some generic Repub congressman say, "Now if the White House would just get out of the way of the recovery, we could get on with it..."
Yes, not shit!
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Post by john on Oct 29, 2009 14:42:37 GMT -5
funny!
How much do you want to bet they claim they are responsible, if we do recover?
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Post by baldrick on Oct 29, 2009 16:31:23 GMT -5
I think it's a guarantee, the GOP will try to claim any recovery. I just hope people are awake enough to see the lie.
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Post by will on Nov 10, 2009 20:16:22 GMT -5
As long as they are claiming responsibility, do you suppose they will claim the lingering unemployment problems as their own, too? Or do you suppose they will try to blame Obama? Hmmm... I really wonder...
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Post by flylooper on Nov 11, 2009 11:03:01 GMT -5
As long as they are claiming responsibility, do you suppose they will claim the lingering unemployment problems as their own, too? Or do you suppose they will try to blame Obama? Hmmm... I really wonder... I doubt the GOP can claim anything at all, other than that they are obstructing every damn action the Democrats propose. Which leads to the logical conclusion the the Administration is going to have to sell the public on the shitty jobs recovery, if nothing starts happening very soon. The financial community is evidently doing fine with our guarantees and loans. Now, what about Joe Sixpack? |
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Post by arozanski on Nov 11, 2009 11:07:54 GMT -5
As long as they are claiming responsibility, do you suppose they will claim the lingering unemployment problems as their own, too? Or do you suppose they will try to blame Obama? Hmmm... I really wonder... I doubt the GOP can claim anything at all, other than that they are obstructing every damn action the Democrats propose. Which leads to the logical conclusion the the Administration is going to have to sell the public on the shitty jobs recovery, if nothing starts happening very soon. The financial community is evidently doing fine with our guarantees and loans. Now, what about Joe Sixpack? Doesn't sound good. |
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Post by flylooper on Nov 11, 2009 11:14:44 GMT -5
Jesus. Talk about re-inflating the bubble. This is really scary. I've been afraid of this all along. The money isn't finding its way down to the people who really make an economy work. The GDP increase includes the speculation the banks are re-involving themselves with all over again. Goldman's big "earnings" reports are included inthe GDP, right? |
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Post by arozanski on Nov 11, 2009 12:52:56 GMT -5
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